National service evaluation of the two week wait upper GI cancer referral pathway

HTU-5 Figure 1The median interval from triage to endoscopy was: 12 days (IQR 8-18) for 2WW;14 days (10-26) for urgent (non-2WW);and 17 days (9-38) for routine endoscopy[Figure omitted. See PDF]ConclusionsTriage based on the BSG recovery guidance was 97% sensitive with a negative predictive value of 99% in diagnosing UGI cancer at 2WW or urgent endoscopy or CT scan. 6.6% of 2WW referrals were safely investigated routinely and over 9% of 2WW referrals required no investigation at all following triage. These findings should guide reform of the upper GI 2WW pathway to reduce the burden on endoscopy during and after the COVID pandemic.

Diagnostic accuracy of Loop mediated isothermal amplification coupled to Nanopore sequencing for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection at scale in symptomatic and asymptomatic populations (preprint)

IntroductionRapid, high throughput diagnostics are a valuable tool, allowing the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in populations, in order to identify and isolate people with asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. Reagent shortages and restricted access to high throughput testing solutions have limited the effectiveness of conventional assays such as reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), particularly throughout the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the use of LamPORE, where loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is coupled to nanopore sequencing technology, for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic and asymptomatic populations. MethodsIn an asymptomatic prospective cohort, for three weeks in September 2020 health care workers across four sites (Birmingham, Southampton, Basingstoke and Manchester) self-swabbed with nasopharyngeal swabs weekly and supplied a saliva specimen daily. These samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA using the Oxford Nanopore LamPORE system and a reference RT-qPCR assay on extracted sample RNA. A second retrospective cohort of 848 patients with influenza like illness from March 2020 - June 2020, were similarly tested from nasopharyngeal swabs. ResultsIn the asymptomatic cohort a total of 1200 participants supplied 23,427 samples (3,966 swab, 19,461 saliva) over a three-week period. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 detection using LamPORE was 0.95%. Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of LamPORE was >99.5% in both swab and saliva asymptomatic samples when compared to the reference RT-qPCR test. In the retrospective symptomatic cohort, the incidence was 13.4% and the sensitivity and specificity were 100%. ConclusionsLamPORE is a highly accurate methodology for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in both symptomatic and asymptomatic population settings and can be used as an alternative to RT-qPCR.

Protocol for the development and evaluation of a tool for predicting risk of short-term adverse outcomes due to COVID-19 in the general UK population (preprint)

Introduction: Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has propagated a global pandemic with significant health, economic and social costs. Emerging emergence has suggested that several factors may be associated with increased risk from severe outcomes or death from COVID-19. Clinical risk prediction tools have significant potential to generate individualised assessment of risk and may be useful for population stratification and other use cases. Methods and analysis: We will use a prospective open cohort study of routinely collected data from 1205 general practices in England in the QResearch database. The primary outcome is COVID-19 mortality (in or out-of-hospital) defined as confirmed or suspected COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, or death occurring in a person with SARS-CoV-2 infection between 24th January and 30th April 2020. Our primary outcome in adults is COVID-19 mortality (including out of hospital and in hospital deaths). We will also examine COVID-19 hospitalisation in children. Time-to-event models will be developed in the training data to derive separate risk equations in adults (19-100 years) for males and females for evaluation of risk of each outcome within the 3-month follow-up period (24th January to 30th April 2020), accounting for competing risks. Predictors considered will include age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, smoking status, alcohol intake, body mass index, pre-existing medical co-morbidities, and concurrent medication. Measures of performance (prediction errors, calibration and discrimination) will be determined in the test data for men and women separately and by ten-year age group. For children, descriptive statistics will be undertaken if there are currently too few serious events to allow development of a risk model. The final model will be externally evaluated in (a) geographically separate practices and (b) other relevant datasets as they become available. Ethics and dissemination: The project has ethical approval and the results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.